5/22/2009 4:05:59 PMBlack magic of Modi fails
News Analysis
Abdul Hafiz Lakhani from Ahmedabad
Abdul Hafiz Lakhani from Ahmedabad
analyses LS polls in Modi’s state
Lok Sabha poll results have not only put to rest all talk about Narendra Modi's "mass appeal" and "charisma", but have also prompted attacks on him from within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). BJP leaders are also saying it was probably a mistake to have projected him as a future prime minister. In the status quo lies a major loss of face for Narendra Modi. Unlike in 2004, this time Modi assumed the role of one of the lead campaigners for the BJP, was touted as a dynamo of development and projected as the party's next prime ministerial aspirant. Considering his top billing, the fact that under him the party actually lost vote share in his state shows the limits of his appeal.
Results of Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat have nothing much to console the BJP and its star campaigners, the prime ministerial candidate LK Advani and Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi. The BJP has won 15 seats in Gujarat, one more than it had got in 2004 elections. The increase of one seat may give a numerical edge to BJP to boast about its “achievement,” but the performance of candidates in the election battle reflects a sad story. The state has 26 parliamentary constituencies.
For almost one year the BJP has been projecting Advani as its prime ministerial candidate, and like US presidential elections it wove its entire campaign round Advani. However, from the word go, the anti-Advani mood of voters of Gandhinagar constituency was evident, and became a tough challenge by the last week of the elections.
Advani, Modi and a team of senior BJP leaders had to work overtime on crisis management to plug the holes Congress candidate Suresh Patel drilled into Advani’s bastion. Even after the polling, BJP managers were panicky about the possibility of Advani’s defeat. Though Advani has won, his margin has been drastically reduced, giving Suresh Patel a sense of satisfaction of dignified defeat by 1,21,747 votes. Last time, Advani had won this seat by 2,17,000 votes.
Advani polled 4.34 lakh votes while Patel got 3.12 lakh votes. Reduction in victory margin by almost half in the background of extra efforts by BJP leaders is certainly a costly victory for the prime ministerial candidate.
BJP leaders are trying to project the defeat of two Union ministers, Naran Rathwa and Shankarsinh Vaghela, as achievement. Vaghela is no doubt a big gun. He lost in Panchmahal to Prabhatsinh Chauhan of the BJP by over 2,000 votes. It was not a keen tussle between Vaghela and Chauhan that brought humiliation to the great BJP rebel, Vaghela. Two candidates, one of BJP and a Muslim candidate of LJP, got 34,000 votes in Panchmahal. That proved a fatal blow to the prospectus of Vaghela.
Of the 26 seats Congress has won 11 and BJP 15. It is a mixed outcome for the Gujarat CM. While on one hand he has helped increase the BJP's LokSabha tally in his state, on the other some party colleagues say his extensive campaign failed to provide the desired results nationally. With Advani likely to walk into sunset, Modi may make a pitch for the mantle. But his path is paved with thorns since the party's allies will not be too happy to work with this Hindutva hardliner.
The poll results have not only put to rest the talk about Modi's "mass appeal" and "charisma", but have prompted attacks on him from within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). BJP leaders are also saying it was probably a mistake to have projected him as a future prime minister.
Some BJP leaders of Gujarat, in muffled voices, said projecting Modi as the party's next prime ministerial candidate was a mistake. Bringing up Modi's name in the middle of the campaign was a serious error of judgment, according to them.
Even Sharad Yadav, chief of NDA ally Janata Dal (United), blamed Varun Gandhi's hate speech and the projection of Modi as future PM for the BJP's poll debacle. "The projection of two leaders [Modi and LK Advani] as prime minister created confusion in the mind of voters," he said.
At times during the campaign, Modi threatned to loom larger than Advani himself. But now is the time for some sobering thoughts. First, the coming UPA government would be more stable, so all the talk about Modi starting his “Chalo Delhi” campaign has become redundant. Second, Modi cannot be overly proud of his vote gathering abilities any longer.
Jubilant over its performance in the Lok Sabha elections, the Gujarat Congress has lashed out at Narendra Modi and said that his “black magic” failed to woo voters. Leader of opposition Shaktisinh Gohil said that NDA would have to suffer the consequences of projecting Modi as their star campaigner.
He added that, looking at the results, it was the beginning of the end of Modi’s balck magic in Gujarat. Addressing mediapersons here he said that the CM was now hiding like a fox in the hole. He further said that Modi should have the grace to accept defeat. Out of the 200 parliamentary constituencies that he addressed outside Gujarat, BJP has won in only 38.
Gohil said that it was the charisma of Rahul Gandhi, sacrifice of Congress president Sonia Gandhi, and faith of people in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that had worked in favour of the party State Congress president Siddharth Patel said that his party was satisfied with its performance in the Lok Sabha elections. He said that the “imported candidates” of BJP had lost elections. He was referring to candidates of Patan, Surendranagar and Dahod who had switched over to BJP from Congress. On the other hand, two candidates namely Rajendrasinh Rana and Harin Pathak of BJP won despite Modi’s opposition to them.
Modi managed to improve -- though just by a token seat -- the BJP tally in Gujarat, irrespective of this party's phenomenal fall elsewhere in the country.
But what must surely hurt the man is that his experiment with selecting young candidates had only a partial success. This is likely to dent his credentials and his plan to move to the Delhi throne.
The Congress, too, has much to worry about. It has won 11 seats, less than the 12 it got in 2004. But the real bad news is that its Union ministers Shankersinh Vaghela and Naran Rathwa lost. So has the Congress chief whip in the LS, Madhusudan Mistry. Modi's decision to bring in fresh faces has partially failed, as only eight of them won from the 15 fielded. Another gamble that failed was the fielding of Congress defectors and candidates with criminal background.
The biggest blow came from the BJP stronghold in Saurashtra, where the Congress won four of the seven seats. The real slap in the face was the Congress victory in Rajkot, a constituency where the BJP had never lost. The young, rich Kadva Patel BJP candidate, Kiran Patel, who had all the credentials to win, lost to the Congress Koli Patel candidate, Kunvarji Bavaliya. The primary reasons being attributed to the BJP's not-so-good win is removal of popular BJP leader Dr Vallabh Kathiriya, arrest of Bavaliya earlier in the year, the rape and murder of a Koli Patel girl Chandani, and the disenchantment of Saurashtra strongman and former chief minister Keshubhai Patel.
LK Advani suffered the humiliation of seeing his victory margin come down to 1.21 lakh from 2.17 lakh in 2004. The victory margins have come down indicating that some core BJP supporters are moving away. If there is any message that this election has given is that good governance and the competence of a prime minister far outweigh communal, emotional and sentimental issues, particularly when the country is facing recession. In absence of a Hindutva wave, issues like terrorism and personal attacks have had little impact. Voters in Gujarat, who had given a thumping mandate to Modi in the December 2007, perhaps felt that Modi was good for the state just as Manmohan Singh was good for the country. Sections of the BJP’s cadre would also be happy over the split verdict of 15-11 in favour of BJP in Gujarat, an improvement of just one seat over 2004, as it would chasten Modi.
It is apparent that unless Modi whips up communal issues–like in 2002 Assembly elections by making “Miyan Musharraf” the symbol of hate and slain gangster Sohrabuddin Shaikh the symbol of terror in 2007–he is unable to bring about sufficient polarisation. During rallies, his talk of the “Gujarat model” didn’t draw the response from audiences his earlier hate speeches had done, turning him from a “maut ka saudagar” into “vote ka saudagar”.
His attempts at replacing hate with humour in his speeches drew squeals of laughter, but did not have real impact. As BJP hoped for a clean sweep, or at least 19 seats, this result cannot be considered as up to the mark performance. Congress has done neither poorly nor remarkably. Congress’s greatest achievement is its victory in Rajkot seat, which has been BJP bastion for a long time. BJP’s achievement is defeat of Shankarsinh Vaghela. BJP had not expected losing Rajkot, Banaskantha and Kheda.
Due to poor selection of candidates, BJP has lost at least four seats. Candidates for Patan, Rajkot, Jamnagar and Porbandar were faulty. While selecting Rajkot and Patan candidates, local cadre was not consulted. Darshna Jardosh(BJP Surat), Jayshriben Patel(BJP Mehsana), Punamben Jat(BJP Kutch) and Prabha Taviyad(Congress Dahod) are victorious female candidates from Gujarat.
LK Advani has secured 4,34,044 votes. His wining margin is 1,21,747. Advani has secured around 54% votes. In 2004 elections he had secured around 60% votes. Thus his percentage margin has come down to 6 percent. Compare to 2004 elections, Gandhinagar has 7 lakh lesser voters, so Advani’s lead in numbers is obviously less.
Shankarsinh Vaghela lost Panchamahal seat due to two Muslim candidates who cut down Vaghela’s Muslim votes. Vaghela was a bit overconfident about his victory. He spent huge time canvassing for other candidates in Gujarat. Vaghela has lost Panchamahal by margin of 260 votes.
Gordhan Zadaphia’s Mahagujarat Janata Party couldn’t perform up to expectations. His very optimistic Surat candidate could secure around 15,000 votes only. However, Gordhan Zadaphia’s Bhavnagar performance was remarkable. Single handedly and with a shortage of funds, he secured 1,56,000 votes. On Patan seat, Mahagujarat Janata Party’s Patel candidate cut prospects of BJP’s Bhavsinh Rathod’s victory. Bhavsinh lost by a margin of 18,501 votes.
There will be by-elections for Gujarat’s Sami-Harij, Dehgam, Jamkandorana, Jasdan, Danta and Chotila Assembly seats within 6 months. From Sami-Harij, Bhavsinh Rathod has resigned as he had changed his party to fight election. Patan’s victorious Congress candidate will vacate Dehgam seat, Congress’s successful candidate from Porbandar Lok Sabha seat Viththal Radadiya will vacate his Jamkandorana Assembly seat, Rajkot’s new MP Kunvarji Bavalia will leave Jasdan seat, Danta would be vacated by Banaskantha’s new Congress MP-elect Mukesh Gadhvi. Chotila’s Congress MLA passed away recently due to ill health.
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Lok Sabha poll results have not only put to rest all talk about Narendra Modi's "mass appeal" and "charisma", but have also prompted attacks on him from within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). BJP leaders are also saying it was probably a mistake to have projected him as a future prime minister. In the status quo lies a major loss of face for Narendra Modi. Unlike in 2004, this time Modi assumed the role of one of the lead campaigners for the BJP, was touted as a dynamo of development and projected as the party's next prime ministerial aspirant. Considering his top billing, the fact that under him the party actually lost vote share in his state shows the limits of his appeal.
Results of Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat have nothing much to console the BJP and its star campaigners, the prime ministerial candidate LK Advani and Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi. The BJP has won 15 seats in Gujarat, one more than it had got in 2004 elections. The increase of one seat may give a numerical edge to BJP to boast about its “achievement,” but the performance of candidates in the election battle reflects a sad story. The state has 26 parliamentary constituencies.
For almost one year the BJP has been projecting Advani as its prime ministerial candidate, and like US presidential elections it wove its entire campaign round Advani. However, from the word go, the anti-Advani mood of voters of Gandhinagar constituency was evident, and became a tough challenge by the last week of the elections.
Advani, Modi and a team of senior BJP leaders had to work overtime on crisis management to plug the holes Congress candidate Suresh Patel drilled into Advani’s bastion. Even after the polling, BJP managers were panicky about the possibility of Advani’s defeat. Though Advani has won, his margin has been drastically reduced, giving Suresh Patel a sense of satisfaction of dignified defeat by 1,21,747 votes. Last time, Advani had won this seat by 2,17,000 votes.
Advani polled 4.34 lakh votes while Patel got 3.12 lakh votes. Reduction in victory margin by almost half in the background of extra efforts by BJP leaders is certainly a costly victory for the prime ministerial candidate.
BJP leaders are trying to project the defeat of two Union ministers, Naran Rathwa and Shankarsinh Vaghela, as achievement. Vaghela is no doubt a big gun. He lost in Panchmahal to Prabhatsinh Chauhan of the BJP by over 2,000 votes. It was not a keen tussle between Vaghela and Chauhan that brought humiliation to the great BJP rebel, Vaghela. Two candidates, one of BJP and a Muslim candidate of LJP, got 34,000 votes in Panchmahal. That proved a fatal blow to the prospectus of Vaghela.
Of the 26 seats Congress has won 11 and BJP 15. It is a mixed outcome for the Gujarat CM. While on one hand he has helped increase the BJP's LokSabha tally in his state, on the other some party colleagues say his extensive campaign failed to provide the desired results nationally. With Advani likely to walk into sunset, Modi may make a pitch for the mantle. But his path is paved with thorns since the party's allies will not be too happy to work with this Hindutva hardliner.
The poll results have not only put to rest the talk about Modi's "mass appeal" and "charisma", but have prompted attacks on him from within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). BJP leaders are also saying it was probably a mistake to have projected him as a future prime minister.
Some BJP leaders of Gujarat, in muffled voices, said projecting Modi as the party's next prime ministerial candidate was a mistake. Bringing up Modi's name in the middle of the campaign was a serious error of judgment, according to them.
Even Sharad Yadav, chief of NDA ally Janata Dal (United), blamed Varun Gandhi's hate speech and the projection of Modi as future PM for the BJP's poll debacle. "The projection of two leaders [Modi and LK Advani] as prime minister created confusion in the mind of voters," he said.
At times during the campaign, Modi threatned to loom larger than Advani himself. But now is the time for some sobering thoughts. First, the coming UPA government would be more stable, so all the talk about Modi starting his “Chalo Delhi” campaign has become redundant. Second, Modi cannot be overly proud of his vote gathering abilities any longer.
Jubilant over its performance in the Lok Sabha elections, the Gujarat Congress has lashed out at Narendra Modi and said that his “black magic” failed to woo voters. Leader of opposition Shaktisinh Gohil said that NDA would have to suffer the consequences of projecting Modi as their star campaigner.
He added that, looking at the results, it was the beginning of the end of Modi’s balck magic in Gujarat. Addressing mediapersons here he said that the CM was now hiding like a fox in the hole. He further said that Modi should have the grace to accept defeat. Out of the 200 parliamentary constituencies that he addressed outside Gujarat, BJP has won in only 38.
Gohil said that it was the charisma of Rahul Gandhi, sacrifice of Congress president Sonia Gandhi, and faith of people in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that had worked in favour of the party State Congress president Siddharth Patel said that his party was satisfied with its performance in the Lok Sabha elections. He said that the “imported candidates” of BJP had lost elections. He was referring to candidates of Patan, Surendranagar and Dahod who had switched over to BJP from Congress. On the other hand, two candidates namely Rajendrasinh Rana and Harin Pathak of BJP won despite Modi’s opposition to them.
Modi managed to improve -- though just by a token seat -- the BJP tally in Gujarat, irrespective of this party's phenomenal fall elsewhere in the country.
But what must surely hurt the man is that his experiment with selecting young candidates had only a partial success. This is likely to dent his credentials and his plan to move to the Delhi throne.
The Congress, too, has much to worry about. It has won 11 seats, less than the 12 it got in 2004. But the real bad news is that its Union ministers Shankersinh Vaghela and Naran Rathwa lost. So has the Congress chief whip in the LS, Madhusudan Mistry. Modi's decision to bring in fresh faces has partially failed, as only eight of them won from the 15 fielded. Another gamble that failed was the fielding of Congress defectors and candidates with criminal background.
The biggest blow came from the BJP stronghold in Saurashtra, where the Congress won four of the seven seats. The real slap in the face was the Congress victory in Rajkot, a constituency where the BJP had never lost. The young, rich Kadva Patel BJP candidate, Kiran Patel, who had all the credentials to win, lost to the Congress Koli Patel candidate, Kunvarji Bavaliya. The primary reasons being attributed to the BJP's not-so-good win is removal of popular BJP leader Dr Vallabh Kathiriya, arrest of Bavaliya earlier in the year, the rape and murder of a Koli Patel girl Chandani, and the disenchantment of Saurashtra strongman and former chief minister Keshubhai Patel.
LK Advani suffered the humiliation of seeing his victory margin come down to 1.21 lakh from 2.17 lakh in 2004. The victory margins have come down indicating that some core BJP supporters are moving away. If there is any message that this election has given is that good governance and the competence of a prime minister far outweigh communal, emotional and sentimental issues, particularly when the country is facing recession. In absence of a Hindutva wave, issues like terrorism and personal attacks have had little impact. Voters in Gujarat, who had given a thumping mandate to Modi in the December 2007, perhaps felt that Modi was good for the state just as Manmohan Singh was good for the country. Sections of the BJP’s cadre would also be happy over the split verdict of 15-11 in favour of BJP in Gujarat, an improvement of just one seat over 2004, as it would chasten Modi.
It is apparent that unless Modi whips up communal issues–like in 2002 Assembly elections by making “Miyan Musharraf” the symbol of hate and slain gangster Sohrabuddin Shaikh the symbol of terror in 2007–he is unable to bring about sufficient polarisation. During rallies, his talk of the “Gujarat model” didn’t draw the response from audiences his earlier hate speeches had done, turning him from a “maut ka saudagar” into “vote ka saudagar”.
His attempts at replacing hate with humour in his speeches drew squeals of laughter, but did not have real impact. As BJP hoped for a clean sweep, or at least 19 seats, this result cannot be considered as up to the mark performance. Congress has done neither poorly nor remarkably. Congress’s greatest achievement is its victory in Rajkot seat, which has been BJP bastion for a long time. BJP’s achievement is defeat of Shankarsinh Vaghela. BJP had not expected losing Rajkot, Banaskantha and Kheda.
Due to poor selection of candidates, BJP has lost at least four seats. Candidates for Patan, Rajkot, Jamnagar and Porbandar were faulty. While selecting Rajkot and Patan candidates, local cadre was not consulted. Darshna Jardosh(BJP Surat), Jayshriben Patel(BJP Mehsana), Punamben Jat(BJP Kutch) and Prabha Taviyad(Congress Dahod) are victorious female candidates from Gujarat.
LK Advani has secured 4,34,044 votes. His wining margin is 1,21,747. Advani has secured around 54% votes. In 2004 elections he had secured around 60% votes. Thus his percentage margin has come down to 6 percent. Compare to 2004 elections, Gandhinagar has 7 lakh lesser voters, so Advani’s lead in numbers is obviously less.
Shankarsinh Vaghela lost Panchamahal seat due to two Muslim candidates who cut down Vaghela’s Muslim votes. Vaghela was a bit overconfident about his victory. He spent huge time canvassing for other candidates in Gujarat. Vaghela has lost Panchamahal by margin of 260 votes.
Gordhan Zadaphia’s Mahagujarat Janata Party couldn’t perform up to expectations. His very optimistic Surat candidate could secure around 15,000 votes only. However, Gordhan Zadaphia’s Bhavnagar performance was remarkable. Single handedly and with a shortage of funds, he secured 1,56,000 votes. On Patan seat, Mahagujarat Janata Party’s Patel candidate cut prospects of BJP’s Bhavsinh Rathod’s victory. Bhavsinh lost by a margin of 18,501 votes.
There will be by-elections for Gujarat’s Sami-Harij, Dehgam, Jamkandorana, Jasdan, Danta and Chotila Assembly seats within 6 months. From Sami-Harij, Bhavsinh Rathod has resigned as he had changed his party to fight election. Patan’s victorious Congress candidate will vacate Dehgam seat, Congress’s successful candidate from Porbandar Lok Sabha seat Viththal Radadiya will vacate his Jamkandorana Assembly seat, Rajkot’s new MP Kunvarji Bavalia will leave Jasdan seat, Danta would be vacated by Banaskantha’s new Congress MP-elect Mukesh Gadhvi. Chotila’s Congress MLA passed away recently due to ill health.
for Gujarat(india) news and news stories please contact
lakhani63@yahoo.com
00-910799228746770
00-910799228746770
1 comment:
Indian voters are very smart and have thrown out the communal forces and nonsecular agenda of BJP and others who tried to misguide the Indian voters under various pretaxt.
Now they have no future and Adavni and MODI should go to clean their faces to ARABIAN sea and get disappear for all the time from Indian politics as they are the one devider and not uniters of our communities,
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